Worked cases
Each case restates a disputed market as it stood when the claim was made, before the vote, and shows the record issued on exactly those inputs. The market's result is shown for comparison only.
| Market | Market's result | The record, at the time of the claim | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Did Strategy sell any bitcoin by 31 May 2026? | No (vote) | Meets the terms assessed | The named source dates the sale inside the window. The vote applied a publication-deadline rule the contract does not contain. |
| Did the US and Ukraine agree a minerals deal before April 2025? | Yes (vote) | Not shown: records conflict, referred | Admissible records point both ways; the check refers the point to a person rather than force an answer. |
| Was Zelenskyy photographed wearing a suit before July 2025? | No (vote, after two disputes) | Meets the terms assessed | The rule names a class of sources, credible reporting, so the bar is that class and no higher. |
| Was TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? | Yes (vote, after a dispute) | Meets the terms assessed, review required | Two of three readings agreed, so the finding is issued and referred for review. |
Full inputs, readings and records are on the ASR worked-examples page, which is the original copy. More cases are added as they are run.